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PROJECT DONOR-FLOW

THE AI-PSYCHOSOCIAL INTEGRATION FRAMEWORK FOR PREDICTIVE DONOR LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT

Living donors aren't missing.
They're being lost.

Every 24 hours, 17 Americans die waiting for a kidney. More than 80% of people who say yes to living donation never reach the operating table — not because they're disqualified, but because the system that's supposed to carry them through evaluation was never built to hold on to them. Project Donor-Flow is Cold Ischemia Foundation's eight-stage AI architecture for closing that gap, grounded in peer-reviewed evidence at every stage.

17/day
deaths on the kidney waitlist (OPTN, 2024)
>80%
of willing donors never reach surgery (SRTR, 2023)
2.15σ
current process quality — 255,000 DPMO
The Eight-Stage Solution
  • AI-guided population targeting before outreach begins
  • Donor Readiness Score at first contact, 24/7
  • FHIR record pull eliminates evaluation fatigue
  • Velocity monitoring predicts withdrawal before it happens
  • Closed-loop learning — every outcome improves the next screen

The scale of the unmet need

Section I · The Crisis

The numbers are not ambiguous. As of March 2024, more than 103,000 patients sat on the national kidney transplant waiting list. Living donor transplantation is the clinical gold standard — and the country is producing fewer of them than it did five years ago.

103,000+
patients on the kidney waitlist
OPTN, 2024
90% vs 82%
5-yr graft survival, LDKT vs. deceased-donor (ages 18–34)
Lentine et al., 2025
6,226
living kidney donors in 2023 — 630 below the 2019 peak
SRTR, 2023
6.03%
lower 5-yr graft failure risk, LDKT vs. deceased-donor
Buse et al., 2024, BJS

The disparities are structural, not clinical

Equity Failure

The intelligence deficit does not fall equally. Race and geography predict access to living donation independent of medical eligibility — and CIF's priority-state analysis names exactly where the crisis concentrates.

37%
lower LDKT likelihood for Black recipients, independent of community vulnerability
Axelrod et al., 2021, JAMA Surgery
5.2% vs 11.4%
LDKT rate, Hispanic vs. non-Hispanic White waitlisted patients
Waterman et al., 2022
3 of 5
CIF priority states carry an AKF grade of D or F
AKF Report Card
15.2%
of candidates withdraw before any formal decision — fully eligible, never disqualified
Lentine et al., 2021, LDCPR

Awareness brings donors to the door. The system turns them away.

Section II · The Pipeline Problem

Click any stage of the funnel below. Of 100 people who inquire about living donation, only 18 ever complete surgery — and the LDCPR data shows most of that loss has nothing to do with medical disqualification.

Every capability is grounded in published evidence

Section II · Evidence Base

Nothing in this framework is speculative. Each number below is a peer-reviewed finding that Project Donor-Flow's architecture directly operationalizes.

The eight-stage AI architecture

Section III · Click to expand

From pre-inquiry population identification to post-donation longitudinal monitoring — a specific AI tool, a defined human role, and a published evidence citation at every stage.

Try the Donor Readiness Score

Live Calculator

The DRS is a weighted composite calculated the moment a donor makes first contact. Move the sliders to see how clinical, psychosocial, financial, and logistical signals combine — and which support track the AI-Concierge would activate. No donor is ever rejected at triage; every score triggers a response.

Clinical Pre-Screenw₁ = 0.3570
BMI, GFR, blood pressure, comorbidities — modifiable risk flags
Psychosocial Signalw₂ = 0.3070
AAS motivation proxy, social support, prior adherence indicators
Financial Statusw₃ = 0.2070
Economic stability, employer protection, NLDAC eligibility signals
Logistical Capacityw₄ = 0.1570
Distance to transplant center, health literacy, prior engagement
70
Donor Readiness Score
STANDARD TRACK
Assigned support protocols for flagged variables. Coordinator contact within 48 hours.

The Lean Six Sigma DMAIC framework

Section IV · Click a phase

DMAIC — Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control — is the process-engineering backbone that keeps every AI deployment organized around measurable outcomes rather than technology for its own sake.

What 40% conversion improvement means

Quantitative Framework

Modeled on 250 annual donor inquiries, using LDCPR attrition rates for the current system and Bossini et al. (2023) improvement rates for the AI-enabled pipeline.

45
Current system
completions / 250
87
With Project Donor-Flow
completions / 250
+93%
more completions from the same inquiry pool
CIF modeling
+42
additional donors — no new marketing spend
CIF modeling
2,490
projected additional living donors per year, nationally
6,226 × 0.40
1,158
fewer waitlist deaths annually (conservative)
2,490 × (17/91,000)

From pilot to national standard

Section VIII · 36 Months

AI that serves the donor — not the system

Section IX · Ethical Framework

Where CIF stands in the national landscape

Competitive Landscape

Ten leading living-donor awareness programs operate in the U.S. None is building what CIF is building.

The case for action

Partnership & Deployment

The programs that deploy Project Donor-Flow earliest aren't just adopting a better tool — they're building the evidence base that shapes what the national standard becomes.

Transplant Programs & OPOs

Deploy the pilot

Deploy the AI-Concierge infrastructure at your program and commit to the National Donor Velocity Benchmark data-sharing framework.

OPTN Policy Committees

Establish the benchmark

Make donor evaluation operational efficiency — DRS distribution, velocity profile, equity-adjusted conversion — a component of program accountability.

Federal Policymakers & HHS

Support Marie's Lifeline

Expand NLDAC eligibility on donor financial status alone, and mandate the follow-up standards KDIGO already calls for.

Works cited

APA 7th Edition

The intelligence gap is real. Project Donor-Flow closes it.

Seventeen people will die today on the kidney transplant waitlist. AI cannot save all of them. But it can — and based on the published evidence, demonstrably will — save more of them than the current system does.